On Monday, I went through my predictions for the League of Legends North American League Championship Series Spring Playoffs. I’ve watched a lot of North American teams over the last few years (since, you know, I live there and everything), but in my year abroad in St. Andrews, I’ve caught up on the European scene as well. As such, I’m fully prepared to make my predictions for the European LCS Spring Playoffs as well (though be prepared for me to hide behind that foreigner card when I’m inevitably incorrect). Let’s get to it.
First, it’s time to say goodbye to the DragonBorns (6-22) and GIANTS! Gaming (8-20), who have been demoted to the Relagation matches explained in my last article (click the link in the intro if you need a refresher). Like last time, I’m not going to break down the Relegation matches here, as the playoffs themselves have plenty of topics that need discussing, but I’m going to make a bold prediction that neither of these teams are making their way back. I say this for two reasons: I really like the teams they’re likely to challenge (Team ALTERNATE has been a sleeper favourite of mine for months, as those who follow my twitter know), and I really hate how these teams played down the stretch. Here’s the only stat that you need to know.
Records in the last week of games:
CompLexity Gaming: 3-2
Team MRN: 2-3
DragonBorns: 1-4
GIANTS! Gaming: 0-5
Teams that have a will to fight and the desire to prove they deserve to be there push themselves during the last week and win something. DragonBorns and GIANTS! rolled over and gave up. That tells me everything I need to know about where these teams belong (spoiler: not the LCS).
Now, onto the playoffs themselves.
3. SK Gaming (17-11) vs. 6. against All authority (10-18)
against All authority was the second place finisher in the Season One Championships, but the team that destroyed so much of the competition in that tournament has long since moved on. They’ve gone through radical roster shake ups in the past two years, with the current roster only having existed since January (and they’ve switched supports since, with Dioud replacing Karalius, which…was actually a pretty even switch in terms of talent). I’ll be honest; I really don’t think highly of aAa. They’ve got a great AD carry in Nono, a very good mid laner in ShLaYa…and we’re done. Their strength is in their consistency, as the team does display a strong fundamental understanding of the game. They’re just not the best players, and their sixth place finish is really representative of being better than those below them. against All authority was a measly 4-16 against teams who made the playoffs, going 6-2 against the DragonBorns and GIANTS! Gaming. That pretty much says it all.
SK Gaming, on the other hand, has been a delightful surprise this year, totally disproving my claims that they weren’t relevant in the Season Three Championship discussion (my biggest misstep in predictions to date, and I’m quite happy to be wrong). I don’t know whether it’s the change in Meta or simply the team building a stronger chemistry that’s done it…oh wait, I totally know what did it. While YellOwStaR is a great AD carry and Araneae is a solid Jungler, but their play didn’t mesh well with the rest of the team’s chemistry. Hyrqbot and CandyPanda (my favourite name in eSports) have done more than just replace their predecessors; CandyPanda has helped SK form one of the best bottom lanes in all of Europe with Nyph as support, and Hyrqbot has elevated the team’s jungle play. When you take Kev1n, one of the best top laners in all of Europe, into account, this is a great team from top to bottom, and they’ve got more than enough talent to take aAa out.
Prediction: SK Gaming over against All authority, 2-0.
5. Copenhagen Wolves (13-15) vs. 4. Evil Geniuses (15-13)
To be honest, I’m pretty shocked that we’re even talking about the Copenhagen Wolves at this point. After all, they were in last place at the season’s halfway point, winning only three of their first fourteen games, including an 8-0 start. Since then, though, they’ve become a major force to be reckoned with, going 10-4 in the second half of the season. From 3-11 to 10-4. They went from last place to beating both Gambit Gaming AND Fnatic in the last week. And without a single roster change. Unbelievable. Yes, their schedule was markedly easier, with three games against the DragonBorns that helped booster that final number, but the last week of games clearly showed what they’re capable of.
As for the players, they’ve markedly improved over the course of the season as you’d expect. NeeGodBro is a fantastic top laner, and Bjergsen is a great AP Mid. The team’s strength, however, lies not with their individual talent, but with their smart play. They’re not the most talented players in the world, but they have a deep understanding of the game and the techniques necessary to achieve victory. They know how to work together to achieve objectives, keep the enemy on their toes, and even sacrifice individuals for the betterment of the team. It’s an intelligence you don’t see every day, and when the talent catches up, they’ll go far.
Their opponent is a team that is pretty much their mirror opposite: Evil Geniuses (formerly CLG.EU) has a roster that reads like an all star team. Froggen is one of the most famous AP Mids in the game. Snoopeh is a highly esteemed jungler. Wickd is well known for his top lane skills, and the combination of Yellowpete and Krepo in bottom lane is well established as one of the fiercest bottom lanes in all of Europe…yet they’re markedly middle of the pack. No, seriously. They’re 7-6 in their last thirteen games. That’s about as mildly above average as a team can get. How can a team with so much talent be so underwhelming in the actual games?
The answer is rather boring: the change in Meta was not kind to the Evil Geniuses. See, back when they were so good that I argued with Skyler over whether they’d take out Gambit Gaming as the best team in Europe (oh what a fool I was), games favoured a slower, methodical pace. Laning phases would usually last quite a long time, and getting into the late game was a common feat. Nowadays, games finish in under 30 minutes almost regularly. This is a huge change in the way this team plays their game. Now Wickd’s tentative nature in top lane is a huge weakness, as the more typical, aggressive top laners bully him consistently. Snoopeh hasn’t yet found a champion that gives him the ganking speed he needs, and you can tell when you watch him play he misses being able to farm in the jungle and raid his opponent’s jungle in the early phases without having to waste precious time setting up ganks that rarely come. If they can get into late game, there are few teams that can match the talent of Evil Geniuses. But I do wonder if they’ll get that far.
I’ve gone back and forth on this pick about 15,374,481 times, but at the end of the day, I have to fall back on something. And if nothing else, the Evil Geniuses have been in this spot and succeeded before, whereas the Wolves have never faced this kind of pressure. That, and EG’s win over the Wolves in Week Ten are my tiebreakers. Sorry, Copenhagen.
Prediction: Evil Geniuses over Copenhagen Wolves, 2-1.
3. SK Gaming (17-11) vs. 2. Gambit Gaming (21-7)
Gambit Gaming, formerly Moscow Five, is one of the most fun teams to watch in all of eSports. Every single player on that team is technically sound. They play the game like the professionals they are, taking advantage of every possible opening. Whether its their incredible ability to destroy creep waves and get a crazy high number of last hits, their mastery of wards and ganking, or their ability to function as a single unit in team fights, they are nearly perfect in their mastery of the game’s mechanics. They’re basically Team SoloMid, but better across the board.
How good is Gambit? Three of the five all-star spots belong to members of their team: EDward (Support), Diamondprox (Jungle) and Alex Ich (AP Mid) are the best in Europe at what they do, and each one of them earned that all star rating. This is also a team that’s stayed together almost two years now, meaning their synergy is at a high that’s almost never seen in League of Legends competitive play. It’s like watching a hive mind in action; it’s simply brilliant. It would take a team of supreme talent and technique to knock Gambit out…
…And I don’t think SK Gaming are the guys to do it. Don’t get me wrong: SK Gaming is very, very good. They won’t go down without a fight. But they simply aren’t going to outdo this team. Hyrqbot is a great jungler, but he’s not Diamondprox. CandyPanda is awesome, but he and Nyph aren’t going to outdo Genja and EDward. And while Ocelote is an underrated mid player, he isn’t going to outclass Alex Ich in multiple games.
This is a best of three series. If everything goes right for SK Gaming, they can grab a game. And that will probably happen. Once. Gambit rarely lets that happen again, as seen by their 3-1 record in head to head play. This one’s pretty open and shut to me.
Prediction: Gambit Gaming over SK Gaming, 2-1.
4. Evil Geniuses (15-13) vs. 1. Fnatic (22-6)
Now it’s time to talk about the team that I didn’t see coming. At all. See, Fnatic won the Season One Championship, but couldn’t earn a spot in Season Two. There are a lot of reasons for this, but the main one is that 2012 was a hectic year for the team. Most eSports teams see movement on their roster for various reason; it’s pretty common for players to retire, change teams, or get dropped for new talent climbing the ranks. Fnatic pretty much lost everyone from that original roster except CyanideFL (who had a hectic schedule due to still being in high school at the time) and xPeke, a solid mid. Both those guys were great, but they didn’t make a whole team.
Instead of giving up and folding, searching for new teams like many players would, Fnatic held out, slowly acquiring talent as time went on. First came sOAZ, the best top laner in Europe (he earned the all star spot this year for top lane). Then came nRated, a very good support. All they needed was an AD carry, and they’d have all their bases covered.
Of course, the story tells itself from here. YellOwStaR left SK Gaming and joined Fnatic, giving them the final piece of the puzzle. With sOAZ and YellOwStar, they now had two players that were capable of giving game clinching performances at any time. If either one of them was on fire, the game would steamroll from there. Always nice to have those kinds of tools in their arsenal.
Oh, right, you probably want me to talk more about the Evil Genius’s side of things. Well…I don’t really know what to say. If I didn’t make it clear in my prediction against the Copenhagen Wolves, I don’t think that team is very good at the moment. They haven’t adjusted to the Meta, and the team simply isn’t what they used to be. Snoopeh’s not great, Wickd’s overrated, and there isn’t a single position in which I wouldn’t give the advantage to Fnatic. I think Fnatic uses this as a statement game, and Evil Geniuses sure as hell could use the wake up call.
Prediction: Fnatic over Evil Geniuses, 2-0.
2. Gambit Gaming (21-7) vs. 1. Fnatic (22-6)
Just like the North American finals, I’m predicting the finals will belong to the top seeds. I mean, to be honest, it makes sense, right? After all, they ARE the top seeds for a reason. These two are no flukes, so you’re probably not surprised to see them here. The question, of course, is which of these two powerhouses is going to win it all. And much like the North American finals, it’s coming down to team philosophy.
Fnatic is a team of all-stars. Both YellOwStaR and sOAZ have the ability to single-handedly swing games, and when they’re both on point, there’s little that can stop them. CyanideFL is a very strong jungler, and both xPeke and nRated are very solid as well. There’s no real hole to exploit; each lane is going to present a challenge to anyone that opposes them. Fnatic has truly great players, and it will take nearly perfect play to take them down
Gambit Gaming is the perfect example of synergy in gaming. They move as a single unit, even when apart, if that makes any sense at all. Their communication is perfect, their understanding of the fundamentals flawless. And in team fights, they’re truly spectacular to watch. Any team that wants to go up against them will have to play a nearly perfect game to emerge victorious.
So, at the end of the day, it’s star power versus…hey, wait a minute. I just remembered that Gambit Gaming has three of the five all stars on their roster. So they have star power AND synergy. Well, the victor seems clear to me.
Prediction: Gambit Gaming over Fnatic, 3-1.
Read my predictions for the North American Spring Playoffs.
Chase Wassenar, aka MaristPlayBoy, is the Lead Editor and Founder of the Red Shirt Crew. He can’t wait to watch all these match-ups and find out where his predictions inevitably will go wrong. You can read his other articles at ToyTMA, follow him on Twitter at @RedShirtCrew or email him at theredshirtcrew@gmail.com.
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