Back in November, Skyler and I made our predictions for what would happen in the North American circuit for League of Legends when the Season Three Championship came back around. I’m quite passionate about the world’s biggest eSport, and as a big fan of the game, I’m nearly constantly retroactively live tweeting games of these teams. But today, I’m doing something different. That’s right! Instead of flooding your twitter feed with about 19,000 tweets on the subject, I’m going to actually hammer out an article making my predictions for the North American LCS LoL Spring Playoffs (Europe to come later this week). Let’s do this.
First, a moment of silence for Team MRN (10-18) and compLexity Gaming (9-19), the seven and eight seeds that are most assuredly going to the Relegation Games. What is relegation, you ask? Well, the LCS (League Championship Series) is not a permanent position; it requires constantly high standards of play to ensure you remain in the most competitive level and gain eligibility to compete for a berth into the Season Championship. Only the top four teams are assured of a spot in the LCS; the bottom four must compete in a best of three series against a challenger that’s qualified in one of the other tournaments, with the winner entering the LCS and the loser being dropped from LCS contention. It’s a brilliant system that is sure to keep all viewers on the edge of their seats as teams fight to remain in their division.
While the 3-6 seeds will battle it out in the first round of the spring playoffs to see who gets a top four spot and who goes to Relegation, the bottom two seeds are automatically dropped into it. That means Team MRN and compLexity Gaming are already at risk of being eliminated from LCS play, and honestly, I don’t see both of them coming back. Both teams have a history of disbanding and reforming sporadically, and I wouldn’t be surprised for disunity to become a factor in these Relegation games. That said, this article isn’t about Relegation, so I won’t say anything more about them.
Without further ado, let’s move on to the first match of the Spring playoff:
6. Good Game University (11-17) vs. 3. Team Dignitas (17-11)
It’s easy to look at the two teams’ records and say that Dignitas is likely to emerge victorious here, but there’s more to consider than these records alone. See, Good Game University (formerly Team Dynamic) struggled early in the season, starting on a dismal 3-12 streak that had them as the worst of the worst entering the halfway point of the season. But in the last four weeks, they’ve managed an 8-5 record, including a decisive victory against Dignitas in Week Nine. This is a team that had a lot of potential going into the beginning of the season, and they seem to have hit a stride in the last few weeks, momentum that could bring them past a free falling Dignitas, which is 6-7 in their last five weeks, including an abysmal 3-7 in their last ten games. With great top play in ZionSpartan, a strong jungler in NintendudeX, and the always powerful DontMashMe as their AD carry, there’s a lot to like about this underdog.
That said, Dignitas isn’t the three seed purely out of luck. While I ragged on them at the beginning of the Season for being a one trick team that gave up the best asset for their playing style, they’ve proven me wrong with more consistent play than anyone would have predicted. The new Meta has worked out well for them, as their typically risky style is well rewarded with the team comps that they’re able to choose. Scarra is still the best AP Mid in all of North America, and he alone guarantees them at least one game in any three game series they enter. Yes, Voyboy is gone, and the team would be much better with him than they are with Crumbzz, but Crumbzz has reestablished himself as a competent jungler, and TheRealKiWiKiD is a fine top laner in his own right. And, as always, you can’t underestimate experience in these types of situations. Dignitas has been on the big stage for two years now; you can bet they won’t suffer any stage fright. Good Game University, on the other hand, is much more up in the air. Oh, and while GGU did win their last match, Dignitas won the other three pretty handily. So there’s that.
If you’re picking Good Game University, you’re banking on recent play being a far better indicator of overall talent than the entire picture, ruling out previous failings against Dignitas in favor of their last game. You’re also counting on them to win the jungle, top, and bottom lanes (not inconceivable) such that Scarra alone can’t take them down. Also, there’s got to be at least one upset in this tournament, right? So why not GGU?
If you’re picking Dignitas, you’re banking on the full body of experience, going back to years of experience on the competitive circuit preparing them for moments like this. You’re counting on at least one Scarra game in which he’s so dominant that nothing else matters (likely), and potentially a second (definitely in play). And you’re expecting GGU to fall under the pressure of the situation.
Honestly, I’ve gone back and forth on this game about a thousand times. While the always reliable “Take the underachieving talent on the rise over the overachieving team on the fall” is in play, so is “Never bet against Scarra in a best of three series unless the other team is damn good”. I hate picking against Scarra…but this is one of my few chances to be proven right about a prediction I made at the beginning of the season. I thought Good Game University would rise to the challenge, and Dignitas would fade away from mainstream relevance. This is their chance to prove me right. I’m going with the underdogs. Sue me.
Prediction: Good Game University over Dignitas, 2-1.
5. Team Vulcan (12-16) vs. 4. Counter Logic Gaming (13-15)
Team Vulcan, formerly team FeaR, which was formerly Monomaniac Ferus, was another one of those teams that had the potential to unseat the top four, but when I did my preseason predictions, I thought they were a year off. In fact, I felt convinced of this as I watched them throughout the season, going 6-10 in their first sixteen games; better than the dregs but not up to top four standard. Their next seven games were much of the same, going 2-5. Then Super Week happened. With five games on the docket and both seeding and potential relegation at risk, Team Vulcan stepped up to the plate, winning four of their last five in a truly decisive manner, including wins against Curse and Dignitas, while exhibiting everything the team had the potential to be [Side note: their only loss on the day – CLG, bringing the Season’s head-to-head to 2-2. Take that as you will]. Is this a flash of what’s to come, or have the pieces finally come together? Sycho Sid has evolved into a great top laner, while Bloodwater is a definitive improvement in the support role, making an already strong bottom lane with Zuna even stronger. And if mandatorycloud can get his hands on Nidalee, that could be enough to secure the game alone.
That said, it’s unlikely anyone on CLG is going to be intimidated. They’ve been a powerhouse since the Season One, and their experience on the big stages is likely to serve as an asset in any potential elimination series. Sadly, this is yet another team that probably wishes they’d kept a hold of Voyboy while they could, as they could certainly benefit from better top play than HotShotGG, who just looks like he’s five steps behind everyone else. That said, there’s a reason this team is always towards the top of the North American standings. Doublelift is an incredible AD Carry, and LiNK has somehow improved their play in Mid, replacing the well respected bigfatlp and surpassing him.
At the end of the day, CLG’s problem has not been in acquiring talent, but in acquiring talent in the roles they need. They lost Saintvicious to Curse, so they send HotShotGG into the jungling role, which fails horribly. After losing Voyboy, HotShotGG goes back to being a top laner after missing months of potential training in the role, but now Chauster, one of the best supports in the game, has to go into the jungle instead. And Aphromoo, a strong AD carry from the former feder team CLG Black, is now playing support. These are all talented players (except HotShotGG, who may just be washed up by this point), but how long can they play out of position before it catches up to them? Their 5-9 record in their last fourteen games says it all.
This is one of those picks that will likely come back to haunt me, but I’m going with Team Vulcan here. You can’t look purely at talent in this series; it comes down to where the talent is lining up. Chauster’s not a great jungler, HotShotGG isn’t a strong top, and the bottom lane is weaker with Aphromoo as their support than it would be if Chauster could return to doing what he does best. Sycho Sid, Bloodwater, and Vulcan’s jungler Xmithie are better at their positions than CLG, even if they aren’t necessarily better overall players. And while LiNK is excellent, mandatorycloud isn’t a slouch. It will be close, but I’m once again going for the underdog here.
Prediction: Team Vulcan over Counter Logic Gaming, 2-1
6. Good Game University (11-17) vs. 2. Curse Gaming (19-9)
Predicting Curse would take over as the number two team in North America is probably my proudest accomplishment as a League of Legends analyst. Sure, there were a lot of signs the team was going to be successful. Saintvicious had revealed himself to be the best jungler in North America. The new Meta made Curse’s pick up of Voyboy an absolute steal, and Nyjacky is a very good AP mid. When you have two of the best players in the entire world at their position on your team, you’re pretty much guaranteed top two status in your region. It’d be pretty hard to do otherwise.
That said, there are some warning signs that can’t be ignored here. Losing Elementz as their support definitely hurts, as their biggest weakness has now become even weaker (though Rhux isn’t a bad player by any means). They also were substantially worse in the second half of the season than they were in the first. Their 12-2 start sent a message that they were the new powerhouses of North America, but since then, they’ve gone 7-7, including a disappointing 1-4 on the last week, basically handing TSM the top seed.
In any other case, I’d say this series would be quite competitive, but this is really a horrible match up for Good Game University. Everything they do well, Curse does just a little bit better. NintendudeX is great, but he’s not Saintvicious. ZionSpartan is a fantastic top laner, but when Voyboy hits his stride, there are few that can match his talent. And while most teams can take advantage of Curse’s weakness in the bottom lane, that’s GGU’s weakness as well. Curse really is a better version of what Good Game University is right now.
While GGU’s future looks bright, and they definitely have the potential to one day outstrip a team like Curse, this is not that day. I think Curse sends a message with this one:
Prediction: Curse Gaming over Good Game University, 2-0.
5. Team Vulcan (12-16) vs. 1. Team SoloMid (21-7)
Team SoloMid began the year by surprising everybody with an uncharacteristic slow start. Sure, they were 9-5, which is hardly bad, but this is TSM, the team that had secured their place as the best team in North America for the past two seasons. Previously, they’d pretty much dominated anyone who got in their way, and now they were dropping games to teams like Team MRN and compLexity Gaming? That was shocking, as was seeing Curse and Dignitas ahead of them in the standings when the first half of the Spring Season came to a close.
However, TSM pushed all potential doubts aside by mowing through the competition in the second half, winning twelve of their next fourteen games, including an outstanding 5-0 performance on the final week of games. Going 5-0 is an impressive feat, but honestly, I expected nothing less; there was no way they were going to let Curse take the top seed from them if they could help it.
TSM is one of those teams that has five players that aren’t necessarily the best at what they do, but they do it best together. Their team chemistry is brilliant, and each player is just so fundamentally sound that there really is no weakness to this team. Reginald is a great AP mid. Dyrus, while probably not as great at top laning as his All Star votes would suggest (I voted for ZionSpartan, but I’m indie like that), has consistently been one of the best in North America at his position. TheOddOne is easily one of the best junglers in the game, and even the newcomer, WildTurtle (about whom I had mixed feelings when he played with Monomaniac) has bonded with Xpecial to form a very strong bottom lane combo.
I know I’ve basically been singing TSM’s praises this entire time, but there’s not much of a case to be made for Team Vulcan. Much like Good Game University is the younger, less experienced version of Curse, Team Vulcan is the younger, less experienced version of TSM. None of the individuals stand out, but they’re all very good, and the team is able to coordinate well together to take advantage of every possible situation ahead of them. Vulcan can one day be as good as TSM if they keep this up, as they’ve already surprised myself and others who follow the LCS, but they’re surely not there yet.
Prediction: Team SoloMid over Team Vulcan, 2-1.
2. Curse Gaming (19-9) vs. 1. Team SoloMid (21-7)
This is going to be a battle, both physically and metaphorically. These two teams represent the two central ideologies of team formation applicable to any sport. Curse has gone out and acquired the best talent that they could regardless of synergy and tried to make it work. Their roster reads more like a list of all stars, with Saintvicious, Voyboy, and Nyjacky all having the potential to be the best at their position when they are at their best (the same could have been said about Elementz before he left the team). This is a team with potential through their individuals, each of whom have the capability of greatness.
TSM, on the other hand, has gone out and built a true team. These players all work well together, and they are each better together than any one of them would be on their own (though they are all great in their own right). The synergy is tremendous. The strategies they employ are complex and truly beautiful to watch come to fruition. And at the end of the day, that’s what League of Legends is about.
If this was a 1v1 tournament with each position going against each other to see who was truly the “best”, this would be a different conversation. But we’d also be playing a very different game. TSM’s teamwork is just too perfect, and while they might lose the jungle, the other players can match and exceed anything Curse can throw at them. Curse’s recent letdowns are proof that they haven’t quite made the leap yet from “team with great players” to “great team with great players”. When they do, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with. Until then, there’s only one choice to make.
Prediction: Team SoloMid over Curse Gaming, 3-1.
Come back on Wednesday when I hope to break down the European LCS Spring Playoffs!
Chase Wassenar, aka MaristPlayBoy, is the Lead Editor and Founder of the Red Shirt Crew. He can’t wait to watch all these match-ups and find out where his predictions inevitably will go wrong. You can read his other articles at ToyTMA, follow him on Twitter at @RedShirtCrew or email him at theredshirtcrew@gmail.com.
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